Sunday’s Trading (11/09/11)
VVV v PSV – lost £3.00. I laid Correct Score (3-3) when price got to 1.3 for £10 (£3 liability), PSV were heavy odds on pre match and traded at 1.01 when score was 0-2. Barmy match as VVV went 3-2 in a mad 6 minute spell in 2nd half.
Roma v Cagliari – won £13.30. I laid Under 2.5 when score was 0-1 (£10 @ 1.3/ £3 liability) expecting a Roma comeback. Late on I also laid Correct Score twice at 0-1. Cagliari scored a 2nd in injury time, which I was happy with as it covered my loss and gave me a profit. It was very late in injury time when the 2nd goal went in and there was no chance of getting any money back on my Under 2.5 lay, I left the bet to run and much to my delight Roma scored a consolation and gave me a double win.
Fylkir v Vikingur – won £8.58. I laid Under 2.5 goals early in 2nd half with score at 0-0. It wasn’t a blind lay as both team’s matches average around 3 goals a game, with Fylkir scoring an average of 1.5 goals a game and Vikingur conceding nearly 2 goals a game.
It was still 0-0 when Under 1.5 goals got down to 1.14 so I laid this also, Vikingur went 0-1 up, so I traded out for a free green on Over 1.5 goals. I then halved my red on my lay of Under 2.5 goals at 1-1, and got another bonus win when the home side scored the winner in injury time.
Istanbul BB v Galatasaray – lost £2.50. I laid Under 3.5 goals when score was 1-0 just after half time. Laid Under 2.5 goals as well later in match and got my money back when it went 2-0. Lost on Under 3.5 goals.
Flamengo v Atletico PR – lost £2.29. I laid Under 4.5 goals at 0-2 just after half time expecting a Flamengo comeback. Also laid Under 3.5 goals later on in match, when it went 1-2 I left all my green on the Over 3.5 side of bet, match finished 1-2.
Gremio v Sao Paulo – lost £1.23. Laid Under 2.5 goals with score at 0-0. Went 1-0 in 65th minute, I expected Sao Paulo might make a comeback based on recent goal scoring record so I left some red on Under 2.5. No goal came so I laid Correct Score for a double loss.
I won just under £13 on the Sunday. I never had a bet on Monday so taking away Saturday’s £3 loss, I ended up with a week’s profit of just under £10.
Analysis of Results
It was a very frustrating weekend, I can’t remember how many times I had a bet waiting to be matched at the price which fitted into my trial system only to see the suspended sign come up for a goal just before it got matched. At one stage on Saturday when I was well behind I nearly lost discipline and went in to a bet to try and win it all back in one go.
Thankfully I resisted and stuck with my system and got a couple of good wins on Sunday.
I don’t think it was a great weekend overall though, I can’t really find a game I definitely shouldn’t have got involved in on the Sunday. Maybe I could have been more patient on the Fylkir, Istanbul and Flamengo matches, I don’t know.
I could also have perhaps got out of the Gremio match at 1-0, but in fairness I was over my weekly profit target at the time and all the evidence pointed to more goals. So not too much done wrong on Sunday.
Saturday was a different matter. Although strictly speaking I didn’t trade Rangers according to plan, I’m not going to beat myself up too much about it as how many times have one of the Auld Firm put a team to the sword in the last 30 minutes? And they were taking on 10 men.
Bordeaux v Evian TG was a mistake, it was a complete lazy trade with no homework. I laid Under 1.5 goals purely on the basis that I hoped for a random goal. Got what I deserved there.
Benfica v Guimaraes was also a bad trade. Benfica were 2-0 up, it had just gone 2-1 when I backed Any Unquoted. I am only supposed to do that bet when the sides are level. These two games cost me £5.90, that’s quite a large loss when you consider the tight margins I’m working within – it was the best part of a 6% loss (of my £100 betting bank). Apart from these games, I can see a valid reason why I placed all the other bets, so I’m relatively happy with the rest.
On top of this, the likes of Man Utd, Man City, Celtic, Bayern, Real Madrid, etc all scored early goals so I rightly didn’t get involved in their games.
Overall my discipline and patience just about held up. I made a profit of just under my weekly £10 target, so considering I thought it was a bad weekend I think I’ll have to be satisfied with that.