The weekend Trixie crashed with Middlesbrough drawing at home to Coventry City, basically further confirming my view that the Championship is a betting graveyard. Liverpool and Manchester United both won, so I got just over half my £8.00 stake back with a return of £4.20. Meaning I am now running at a loss of £10.64 with my bookies bets.
I think I will probably abandon the ‘playing it safe’ mode and go for longer shots from now on. I will probably stick with the Trixie bet for a while and try and pick all games at odds of better than Evens, because then if two games come in at Even money, I think I’m right in saying that it covers the bet.
Saturday’s Trading (27/08/11)
Kalmar FF v IFK Goteborg – Lost £6.67 – I got involved in ‘laying the draw’ in this one. Why, I don’t know, as I told myself that from now on I wasn’t going to go down the road of just getting involved in doing random bets on any old games just for the sake of it. So I was very annoyed with myself for betting on this game, and it was serves me right. Not a great start.
Blackburn V Everton I managed to win a massive 95p laying Blackburn, because of the 1st penalty miss I traded out just in case Blackburn scored, I was delighted I had when Rovers got their 2nd penalty, but pissed off I did when Everton won. Due to the above mentioned loss I played safe and got out, I only stood to win £3 before I traded out from a liability of around £7.
Ipswich V Leeds Lost £2 on Over 3.5 goals, layed £10 @ 1.2 for £2 liability with about 10-15 minutes left. The 3rd goal came too late for me to cover my bet as the liquidity was very poor and I couldn’t get matched. Had it been a bit better I could have covered my loss and got a small green on the other side.
Chelsea V Norwich Broke even – Had £2 on Any Unquoted Score @ 15 just after Norwich made it 1-1 in the 63rd minute. Got my money back laying @ 10 just after Lampard scored Chelsea’s 2nd in the 83nd minute, was left with just under £10 green on Any Unquoted. The crucial 3rd Chelsea goal came too late in proceedings to trade a profit.
Valencia V Santander Finished off the day with a nice win of £6.76 in this match. Got a bit lucky here as I layed Under 5.5 goals when the score was 1-2 around 10 minutes into 2nd half @ 1.20 for £10 (£2 liability), almost immediately the suspended sign came up and there was 2 goals in a minute or two. A dream bet and I straight away just greened up all round.
Finished Saturday just under £1 down, which I had to try and take as a positive result considering my stupid loss on the Kalmar/Goteborg game.
Sunday’s Trading (28/08/11)
Helsingborgs v Orebro Bit of a naughty trade this one as I’m no expert on Swedish football (to say the least). Anyway I layed Under 1.5 goals late on (around 75 minutes, I think) for £3 liability @ 1.3. Goal came within 5 minutes and I greened out and left the majority on the Over 1.5 side of the bet. Sure enough the 2nd goal went in and I won £5.32.
It wasn’t a totally blind bet as I did check the Starting Price on Over 2.5 goals before I got involved and noticed it was very low (around 4/6 I think), so I knew that the market was expecting goals in this one.
Schalke v Mgladbach Again, the market fancied goals in this game and with Huntelaar and Raul in the staring line up for Schalke, I couldn’t see this one ending 0-0. I layed Under 2.5 goals for £2.30 liability @ 1.23 a few minutes into the 2nd half. The goal came around 10-15 minutes later and I covered my bet and left a couple of quid of green on the Overs. The game ended 1-0 and I left with a massive 21p profit.
Sion v Servette I noticed that Sion were 0-3 down at HT, after beating Celtic on the previous Thursday and the fact that they were heavy odds on favourite (at kick off) I thought it was worth a lay of Servette @ 1.06. Finished 0-4 and I lost £1.50.
Lillestrom v Sogndal Noticed that heavy odds on favourites Lillestrom were 0-2 down after about 70 minutes and rather than lay Sogndal, I layed Under 3.5 goals for a liability of £2.20 @ 1.22 expecting a Lillestrom comeback. Sogndal added a 3rd soon after, so I greened out for a profit £2.24.
Sp Lisbon v Maritimo Sporting went 1-2 down in 53rd minute. I then waited about 5-10 minutes and layed Under 4.5 goals for liability of £2.50 @ 1.25. Sporting equalised in 76th minute, so I greened out for a profit of £4.50.
Ended Sunday just over £11 up so I was £10 up for the weekend, achieving my moderate target of 10% profit a week.
Monday’s Trading (29/08/11)
Barcelona v Villarreal Backed Any Unquoted Score when it hit 4.3 (the equivalent of laying at 1.3) for a liability of £3. Five minutes later Barcelona scored. I bought back £2 red and waited for the 2nd goal. I then greened up for £3 profit.
Nacional v Benfica Lost a £1 laying Under 3.5 and 2.5 goals late on at 0-1 after Nacional went down to 10 men. Although strictly speaking this trade fell outside my guidelines, as I had cleared my target of 10% I thought I’d allow myself a small speculative punt on the game.
All in all I ended up with a £12 profit from my £100 bank, I stated in my last blog post that I was aiming for around 10% profit a week, so I’m happy with that. I only started this system midway through Saturday so I know it hasn’t yet been a week, but what I will do from now on is regard the Monday night games as the end of my ‘Trading Week.’
If I hadn’t got involved with the stupid draw laying in the Kalmar/Goteborg match on Saturday, it would have been an even more successful weekend. Obviously £12 isn’t a massive profit, but at the moment the money is irrelevant really as testing the system and my discipline is the most important thing. If I can prove that both the system and my discipline are up to the task, the stakes can then increase over time.
Two other bets I nearly did which would have come in, but decided not too, were backing Any Unquoted in the Real Madrid game and laying Spurs on the handicap in their game against Man City.
Real Madrid scored at around the 6.2 mark, while I was looking for 7 or 8 before I got involved. Thinking about it afterwards, this was stupid really as I should have backed Any Unquoted at around the 4.5 – 5.5 mark, this is better odds than the 1.2 – 1.3 I had been laying in my other trades. This is the reason why I got involved with Barcelona at 4.4.
As for Spurs, the main reason why I left their lay was because of the lack of liquidity in the handicap markets. I had expected to need to trade out and was worried that I wouldn’t have been able too. As it turned out, I wouldn’t have needed too. But from a positive perspective, I chose not too get involved for the right reasons.
Not sure if I will be bothering with any bets this weekend with it being an international week, I’m also away for the weekend which is rather convenient and should stop me getting tempted. I will try and keep an eye on things though, and will report back if I get involved in any activity.