For the next few weeks I’m going to trial a new system of short price laying on the Unders/Overs markets at around the Half Time mark. I’m also going to look at backing Any Unquoted for trades when particular teams (ie, Man Utd at home, Barcelona, Real Madrid, etc) are playing and the match reaches a certain criteria.
It’s nothing new or unique, and I have messed around with these sorts of bets on and off over the last couple of years. But from the weekend just gone and onwards I’m going to keep and publish a betting diary of how the trades/bets go.
Due to a bad run, bad discipline, bad game selection, bad just about everything you can think off lately, I have suffered some moderate losses. Nothing too bad, but enough for someone who is basically skint. So that is why I am going to try to dabble with low level stakes for a while now too see how things go.
One technique will be laying Unders at around the half time mark when the price is 1.2 to 1.3 depending on the score.
For example, if a game like Manchester United V Tottenham (0-0 HT, 3-0 FT) is 0-0 at HT – like it was last Monday – then lay the Unders markets. The same with Manchester City V Swansea (HT 0-0, FT 4-0) the week before and so on.
If things go to plan and a goal goes in early in the 2nd half, I will cover my stake and leave it for a free bet. For example, 0-0 @ HT, lay Under 2.5 goals at approx 1.3, a goal is scored at around the 47-50 minutes mark, Under 2.5 goals will probably go to around just under Even money, so I would cover my bet.
After the 1st goal I may leave it for 5 minutes and see if a 2nd quick goal is scored, if a 2nd quick goal comes then the price of Over 2.5 goals goes to around 1.3, then I will green up all round. It depends on how the game is looking whether I get out after 1 goal or push my luck and wait for a 2nd.
The worst case scenario is getting out when the price goes back to where you started and you leave with no profit, or most importantly, no loss.
Ideally I would prefer to be laying Under 2.5 goals when the price is 1.2, but it’s not an exact science and will depend on who is playing and how the match looks really. The maximum I will lay at is 1.3, at least that’s the plan and we all know about discipline (or the lack of it).
Basically in a nutshell it’s just a case of waiting patiently and hoping that an opportunity will arise. If a game is 2-0 at half time, then walk away from it. In theory this could be frustrating as I could be waiting all weekend without success for a game to reach the right situation to execute the bet, and that’s where discipline could be the problem.
I’m only going to do it on teams that generally always score, or can’t defend. I won’t be using this system on games like Swansea V Sunderland (0-0), or West Brom V Stoke (0-1). A team like Leeds for example will generally always have goals in their games.
I will also use it in games like the Manchester United V Tottenham example that I gave above. A 2-0 scoreline was generally the most expected outcome in that game, so laying Unders at HT (and hoping for an early goal), rather than backing ‘Any Unquoted,’ would be the more appropriate market to get involved in. But (for example) if Manchester United are at home to QPR or Swansea (no disrespect meant), then maybe the ‘Any Unquoted’ market would be the more appropriate for value.
Which brings my nicely onto another trade I will experiment with. Which is backing ‘Any Unquoted Score’ when the odds get to between 6/1 and 10/1, depending on the teams involved and the match. For example, Barcelona and Real Madrid generally score in the first half and the odds on the Overs market aren’t competitive, so hitting this market around the 6/1 – 7/1 mark (assuming it gets that high) would probably represent the best value here.
Other sides worth following in this market are Rangers, Celtic, Manchester United, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, etc – you don’t really need me to point out the teams most likely. You also don’t need 4 goals to come in to win, as long as 3 goals are scored before (roughly) the 70 minute mark you should be able to trade out at odds on.
Again, it’s not an exact science and I will adjust what price I enter the market at as I go along as the odds listed above are just rough speculative prices, but depending on the team and the match situation this bet is worth a silly 2 or 3 pounds.
It is also an especially useful technique if the favourite goes into an early lead and is pegged back to 1-1, at around the 50-60 minute mark. Quite often the bigger teams can hit two quick goals late on in these type of games, they seem to switch to cruise control at 1-0, but as soon as they are woke up by an equaliser, they seem to punish the cheeky underdog with a late barrage.
This almost happened in the Chelsea V Norwich match on Saturday. Not long after Norwich made it 1-1 in the 63rd minute I backed ‘Any Unquoted’ @ 15. Chelsea didn’t make it 2-1 until the 82nd minute and I was still able to trade out (@ 10) for a free bet. It Chelsea had then scored their 3rd shortly afterwards I would have been able to green out for a nice all round profit. As it was, it ended up as a losing free bet, but who knows on another day!!
If you’ve had a good day and are up, even at 1-0 after about an hour this could be a good trade. If I am watching a match and it looks like the pre match heavy odds-on favourite (ie Man Utd at home to Wigan, again no disrespect meant to Wigan) are all over their opponents, then even at 1-0 this could be worth a couple of quid. All you need is a couple of quick goals in the next 10-15 minutes and the price will be odds on.
I would imagine that with these two systems I could endure some very frustrating weekends with little or no profit or action, I also imagine though that when you do win, it will be a good win, making up for the quiet weekends. But on the whole, plenty of discipline and patience will be needed in waiting for the right moment and that is where the problems could develop.
I will also only be looking for moderate returns, roughly 10% of betting bank a week.
The first weekend almost went according to plan, I will publish the results later today/tomorrow.