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Assured Soccer Profits Review (Week 11)

After the previous two weeks activities, I’m more than happy to report that I’ve had a very quiet and uneventful week using the Assured Soccer Profits system.

There was a couple of factors why it was a quiet week. First, I suppose my confidence had taken a bit of a hit after the last couple of weeks and it was also partly down to there not been many games due to it being the Christmas week.

I was very circumspect with my stakes, which I suppose is an obvious reaction to what happened. As a result of these factors I only traded the 6 games, resulting in a modest profit of £12.68.

Here is a list of the ASP games I traded between 19/12/11 to 25/12/11

19/12/11 – St Pauli v Eintracht Frankfurt – Won £1.99
20/12/11 – Wolves v Norwich – Won £2.09
21/12/11 – Aston Villa v Arsenal – Won £2.28
21/12/11 – Ath Bilbao v Oviedo – Won £3.14
22/12/11 – Once Caldas v Junior – Won £1.17
23/12/11 – Moreirense v Nacional – Won £2.01

This has taken my overall ASP results up to a profit of £52.68 from 77 games. This works out at a profit of just under 69p a match on average, which is some way short of where I would like to be.

The systems creators work on an average of £4 profit a game. I didn’t expect to be anywhere near that amount as I’m not using the higher level of stakes they were basing that average figure on, but I did expect to be doing better than 69p a game.

I’d have hoped to be hitting a figure somewhere in the region of £1.50-£2.25 a game. Maybe that’s too high as I’m still only finding my feet with the system, I don’t know?

I had also hoped to have been happy with my returns and implementation of the system after 100 games, that also doesn’t now look likely. Anyway, I’ll keep going.

Finally, I did mention in last weeks post that I thought I may have spotted something worth looking into a bit more, unfortunately I didn’t really notice the trend in the games I’ve traded since. But saying that, there was only 6 of them, so I’ll keep looking.

footballgambler December 27, 2011 Assured Soccer Profits , No Comments

Assured Soccer Profits Review (Week 10)

This was my 10th week using the Assured Soccer Profits system and it has to be said was my worst week by far, and this comes right on the back of the previous weekend’s calamities.

This time I have to say that with the benefit of hindsight, my two major losses were in the main down to my own misjudgements.

Starting with the first of my two Saturday losses, and it was in the Newcastle V Swansea game. Now it didn’t take a great deal of research to find that Swansea have had quite a few clean sheets in the league this season, and also aren’t the most prolific scorers on the road.

Also taking into consideration that Newcastle games aren’t exactly goal feasts (except Norwich last weekend), this has to go down as very bad match selection. When I select matches I tend to look for games that I expect might end 1-1 or 2-1 either way, as opposed to 4-2 or 5-1, for obvious reasons. But the problem with these games is that they tend to be between equally matched sides who can sometimes cancel each other out.

In hindsight I think this game fitted more into the 1-0 category, with one goal more likely to decide it. Maybe I need to drop games like this, after all a 1-0 game can be decided in the 90th minute meaning that I would have used up most of my green covering some of my 0-0 red at half time, resulting in me having about £1 to be gained, with about £15 to be lost if it stays 0-0.

When I look at it like that, I have to say is it really worth the risk?

As it turned out, this is exactly what happened and I ended up recording a loss of £16.75 on this game.

I also lost a large amount on Schalke v W Bremen. I chose this game because I thought the AUQ price was way too short for a game that was 3rd V 5th. I layed it at 8 pre kick off, it came into around 7.4 to 7.6 in the end.

Because of the shortness of AUQ, 0-0 was way too high to lay. So to compensate for this, yes you’ve guessed it, I piled into AUQ for my profits instead.

I left myself a liability of around £40, which was ridiculous really. I never leave that much red on one price using this system, so I really don’t know what possessed me into doing it on this occasion. For those not aware, the ‘close’ match between 3rd and 5th ended up a close 5-0 to Schalke, costing me £30.70.

In concluding I have to put the Newcastle V Swansea game to bad match selection, and the Schalke V Werder Bremen match down to bad bet execution. Totally my own fault on both counts.

Anyway it wasn’t all totally bad, I did win on quite a few games. Here is a list of my ASP activity between 12/12/11 and 18/12/11.

13/12/11 – FC Koln v Mainz – Won £1.14
17/12/11 – Fulham v Bolton – Won £3.80
17/12/11 – Blackburn v West Brom – Won £1.09
17/12/11 – Newcastle V Swansea – Lost £16.75
17/12/11 – Gijon v Espanyol – Won £1.41
17/12/11 – Schalke v W Bremen – Lost £30.70
17/12/11 – Mallorca v Getafe – Won £2.23
17/12/11 – Wigan v Chelsea – Won £2.85
17/12/11 – Ath Bilbao v Zaragoza – Won £1.90
17/12/11 – Lyon v Evian TG – Won £2.17
18/12/11 – Academica v Sp Lisbon – Won £3.32
18/12/11 – Cercle Brugge v Gent – Won 95p
18/12/11 – Valencia v Malaga – Won £1.23

Overall my winning bets came to £22.09, my losing bets came to £47.75, meaning a loss of £25.36 was recorded over the course of the week, which is very disappointing when I look at the manner in which the two losses were recorded.

I will update my Assured Soccer Profits Results Page later in the week, there is also a few other games I need to add to the list. The main thing is that it is still showing a profit, and that has to be taken as a positive and built upon.

I am going to slightly rethink my strategy over the next few days, and I’m also going to slightly experiment with the system after having potentially spotted something last weekend.

As ever, I will again state for any new readers that this system isn’t easy to just pick up and master and I still regard myself as only learning it. There are obvious errors I need to cut out of my implementing of the system, and until I do, I don’t believe that I am in a position to say whether or not it is for me. Although like I also said earlier, it is still showing a profit, and I haven’t invented any systems that have done that yet.

If you wish to check out the system for yourself, more information is available here.

footballgambler December 21, 2011 Assured Soccer Profits , No Comments

Another Pre Match trade cock up

Not content with getting away with my near disastrous lay of Under 3.5 goals in the Chelsea V Man City game last week, I had another go at throwing away half my betting bank tonight, this time laying AUQ pre match in the Blackburn V Bolton game.

I layed AUQ pre match at 9.4 for about £12 leaving a nice £100 red on it, then right on kick off the price shot down to 9, so again I though I would wait 5 minutes for the price to settle down and get my money back. And again, before I had a chance a goal flashed in.

I then thought, not too much damage done, the game will probably settle down and if there is a second goal it will probably come from Blackburn. With this in mind I can just sit tight and the price will get back out to where it was when I layed it.

And I was right as the price hit 9.6 at about the 25-26 minute mark. Blackburn were attacking so I left it, it then hit 10 and I though I want to leave with a couple of quid profit now, so I was waiting for 10.5 to get out.

I wouldn’t mind but when I seen Bolton attack, I decided to take 10 and attempted to trade out, the count down was showing 1 second left when the suspended sign appeared for Bolton’s second goal.

I couldn’t believe it, but when all said and done, it was serves me right.

This time I couldn’t take any chances, I know that it was highly unlikely that AUQ was going to come in, but at 0-2, if there is a 3rd goal for Bolton I would have had absolutely no where to go really.

So with this in mind I took my medicine and backed AUQ at 4.3 for an all round loss of around £14. I then backed 2-2, 3-2, 2-3 and 3-3, hoping for a Blackburn comeback and a goal feast, but it obviously didn’t happen.

The annoying thing is that the bet actually won, the problem is that I can’t afford that sort of liability with my bank. I’m trying to prove to myself that I can trust myself to handle my bank properly, in the hope that if I can behave in a more serious manner, I can ‘invest’ (haha) a larger sum in it after a few weeks.

This latest stupid error just proves that I am miles away from getting myself into that position. Anyway, maybe I will learn for real this time, so onwards and (hopefully) upwards.

footballgambler December 20, 2011 Betting Strategies No Comments

A near disaster trading Under/Over 3.5 goals

Over the past few weeks I have been attempting to do a bit of pre match trading on certain matches, mainly in premier league games.

Last night I thought the odds on Under 3.5 goals in the Chelsea V Manchester City match might shorten pre kick off. In hindsight I now believe the reason why I thought this was because in my view I thought there wouldn’t be 4 goals or more, so I wrongly assumed that 1.49 was too big and would right itself by shortening.

I have now learnt a valuable lesson that there is a whole world of difference between what I think will happen over the course of 90 minutes, and how a given market might behave in the 5 minutes pre kick off.

As a result of my serious miscalculation, when the game kicked off the price of Under 3.5 goals was at 1.51, I had put £100 on it about 10 earlier at 1.49 expecting it to shorten further and allow me to get out for a couple of quid profit.

At this stage I had decided I wasn’t leaving with a red/loss, in fact I wasn’t leaving without at least a couple of quid green – and after all nothing will happen in the first few minutes, will it!!!

How wrong was I as I watched in horror at Chelsea’s latest defensive calamity just 90 seconds into the match.

At this stage I tried to keep calm, after all £100 is a lot of my betting bank, and far more than I gamble these days, so I knew I couldn’t afford to lose it.

I didn’t expect a goal rush and I was reasonably confident that it might stay 0-1 for the rest of the first half, but at the same time I was now firmly of the opinion that I get out for a scratch trade as soon as the price goes back to 1.49.

I nervously watched as the price got down to 1.51, at this stage the match was in a bit of a lull and I thought to myself that I couldn’t see much happening here so I will leave my bet to run for another few minutes and get £90 out at about the 40 minute mark, and just leave a £10 bet to run.

30 seconds later, bang, it’s 1-1, I couldn’t believe it. Now I really am panicking, another goal now and I know I’ve got to let this bet run until about the 80 minute mark, and I know my nerves won’t handle that.

So I waited for about 5 minutes and layed the HT correct score @ 1.06 for £100, hoping for a 3rd goal. It didn’t arrive, so I spent half time planning my next move.

I knew I couldn’t risk a 3rd goal early in the 2nd half, I had to take out some insurance. So in the end I decided to lay Under 4.5 goals, in the knowledge that an early 3rd goal would see a huge price swing in that market and buy me some equity. I also knew I could still sit on Under 3.5 goals until late on, although I was well aware that after about 75 minutes a goal would really put me in a sticky spot.

After the sending off I was also quite happy as I knew Man City would hold what they had, and that’s exactly what they tried to do, and to be honest they were doing so quite comfortably until the bloody penalty decision.

That also came at the worst possible time for me, as there was no where to go with the Under 4.5 goals lay when the match goes beyond the 80th minute. A 4th goal in and around approximately the 85th minute and onwards mark would leave me with the option of hoping for a 5th goal, or having to trade out at around 1.3, which was no real use.

In the end I just had to sit on the bet and see it through to the very end, I actually ended up winning about £5 on the match, but it certainly wasn’t worth the risk or the stresses it put me through.

The morale of the story will have to be to get out of any large pre match trade, pre match. Do what it says to do on the tin, the words pre match means what it says, and if that means taking a small loss, then so be it. If I do have to red out, then my match selection has been wrong and I clearly need to improve my match selections.

Another thing I could have done last night was just traded £90 out pre kick off and just left £10 on as a bet, I know I would have made a slight loss on the £90, but I wouldn’t have exposed my bank in such a reckless way, and in the end I would have won.

Under/Over 3.5 goals is a very fast moving market and one which I believe justifies a lot more time being invested in as I can see some real opportunities with it.

Two valuable rules need to be set down first though, I need to try and judge the market on how I think the market will behave, not on what I think will happen over the full 90 minutes, and if I’m doing a pre match trade, I need to make sure all my trading money is out of the bet before a bloody ball is kicked.

footballgambler December 14, 2011 Betting Strategies 2 Comments

Assured Soccer Profits Update – A wake up call

It had to happen, and if I’m honest it had been coming for a while. Yes, after a good run, I’ve had my arse kicked by the Assured Soccer Profits system this weekend.

The last time I updated on my ASP trades was after Match No.36 listed on my ASP results page. After the Leicester V Blackpool match my profits went up from £54.89 to £82.38, I was within a whisker of taking my profits over the cost of buying the system on Saturday when Mainz v Hamburg finished 0-0 and cost me £23.72.

To further compound my mood I was then stung by a second German game on the same day finishing 0-0, this time Hannover v Leverkusen, this game cost me a further £17.50. So after a 29 game winning run, two defeats on Saturday demolished a lot of the good work and handed me a loss of £41.22, ouch!

I don’t believe the two losing games I picked were bad choices form wise either. There was nothing to suggest either game would end 0-0, so it was important not to beat myself up over it – as has been done in the past.

Anyway, never mind. What happened next is the biggest positive to take out of the whole weekend for me. Bearing in mind I knew I would lose on the system soon, I believed I was mentally half prepared to take a hit (I don’t think I’ll ever be totally prepared for a loss).

What I wasn’t prepared to see, was half my winnings wiped out in one day. So the way I responded to this big hit has cheered me no end.

I didn’t lose the plot and start recklessly gambling trying to get it back, I licked my wounds and got back on the bike and carried on doing just what I had been doing for the last few weeks. I know there was a time not too long ago when I would have been raging with what happened and would have done something stupid (gambling wise).

But a quick look at my results showed me I was still well in profit, the system had worked well for the last 29 games, so why not another 29 games? So basically all I had too do was carry on doing what I had been doing previously. No rocket science involved, just a bit of common sense required.

I then hit back with ASP wins on Norwich v Newcastle – Won £3.15, Twente v NEC Nijmegen – Won £3.04, Betis v Valencia – Won £3.32, Inter v Fiorentina – Won £3.80, Sunderland v Blackburn – Won £3.87, Villarreal v Sociedad – Won 81p, Stoke v Tottenham – Won £3.23 and Instituto v Merlo Won- £2.98.

That now leaves me at £65.36 after 58 matches, to be honest I would have liked to have been showing a more healthier profit at this stage than just over £1 a game. But at the end of the day I suppose I’m showing a profit and I’m still learning about the system.

I had another read of part of the manual a week or so back to try and hone my technique a bit more, and to remind myself of the exit strategy if no goals arrive before half time.

I was reminded that (as there is that much to take in, it is easy to forget things, believe me) in the example used in the guide, the operator of the system executes the trade in a way that his green should be able to buy him out of his 0-0 at around the 35-45 minute mark.

The only problem in doing it this way is that I would need to leave myself greatly exposed with my ‘red’ on the higher score part of the trade, something I’m not too keen on doing. I am attempting to implement the system in a way where I should only lose around £15-£17 on a 0-0, so in this respect my calculations were a fair bit out in the Mainz v Hamburg (lost £23.72) game, and probably just a touch too high in the Hannover v Leverkusen (lost £17.50) game.

As I have stated before I am still learning this system. There is a lot to take in and I am still trying to hone my trades to suit my bank and my style of trading. ie, I’d rather put my large red on the 0-0 side of the trade due to not liking sitting on a higher score red, my nerves get shot hoping a 1-0 game doesn’t go 2-0 too quickly.

So for the time being I am going to stick to what I’ve been doing. I’m going to continue with my experiment and hopefully keep learning and see where it takes me.

footballgambler December 12, 2011 Assured Soccer Profits 2 Comments

Get cash back for opening bookmakers accounts

Over the last few weeks I have been looking into different ways of building up my betting bank. As I already have many of the mainstream bookmakers accounts, William Hills, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, etc, I have had to look towards the newer bookmakers whom I’ve never used before to claim free bets to build up my own personal betting bank.

Also my missus (it’s not me masquerading as her, honestly) has started to build a betting bank by opening new accounts. Basically she is looking to get all the free bets again from the mainstream bookmakers that I already have accounts with, as well as eventually getting round to the newer ones as well.

While looking into this she has come across Cash Back Sites, Top Cash Back and Quidco, where you get money just for buying things or for signing up for things like Sky TV, Credit Cards, etc.

On discovering these sites she has realised that you can also get money for signing up for bookmakers accounts, and in some cases you can get the free bets as well, so it can be a win double.

For example, she has just signed up for a Betdaq account with one of these sites and got £20 for it. She already had a Betfair account, but if she hadn’t, she could have earned another £10 for opening one through this particular cash back site.

There is a qualifying criteria. With Betdaq, my missus had to deposit and wager a minimum of £30 for her first bet, with Betfair (if she had been opening a new account) she would of had to have deposited and wagered a minimum of £10.

Basically, what she did was deposit £30 in Betdaq and bet the £30 on a darts match at around 10/11 (a two horse race) in the recent Grand Slam of Darts, she then backed the other player on Betfair to make sure she all but covered the £30 (she got around £28.50 back after commission). For doing this she pocketed (sorry, I mean handbagged) £20 from the Cash Back Site.

If she didn’t already have the Betfair account, she would have earned £30 for doing this (£20 from Betdaq, £10 from Betfair).

The Cash Back Site she used is called Quidco, she’s since found another one called Top Cash Back. She told me they both seem fairly similar, except Quidco charges £5 a year, while Top Cash Back is free.

She has now noticed that there is a load of bookmakers on both of these sites, some with free bets as well. For example, there is a £50 free bet available with Ladbrokes, along with £20 cash back, as she doesn’t yet have a Ladbrokes account, she’s told me that is her next task.

footballgambler December 4, 2011 Building A Betting Bank, Matched Betting , No Comments

More wins with the Assured Soccer Profits system

I’ve traded a further 4 games since last weekend’s update with the Assured Soccer Profits system, resulting in a further profit of £13.98.

The games I traded are…

Charlton v Huddersfield – Won £4.75.
Instituto v Rivadavia – Won – £1.90.
Derby v Brighton – Won £2.30.
Leicester v Blackpool – Won £5.03…..

the overall profit now stands at £54.89, the results can be found here.

Clearly my knowledge of Instituto and Rivadavia is limited (ok, non existent), but I noticed that the home side were heavy odds on favourite and a goal down, so I had a feeling there was another goal left in the game and the odds stacked up at the time to implement the trade.

I did have a bad feeling after a while, but luckily Instituto equalised mid way through the 2nd half (if my memory serves me right) and I got out with a small profit.

Of the other games, Charlton V Huddersfield looked perfect for the system, I had it down as a possible 1-1, 2-1 or 1-2 result. Derby games rarely go goal mad, so that was a basic trade.

I was a bit worried that Leicester might put someone to the sword, but it never materialised and I got out just after half time in case of late goals.

All in all I am happy with the trades, maybe I should have left Leicester alone, I don’t know, I’m sure there are safer trades out there. The point is that I can worry too much and talk myself out of doing trades, I think the balance of games I chose was reasonable enough.

Again, I must stress that it is steady progressive profits, not big wins. This system isn’t about big wins, and I am slowly learning myself that steady weekly profits are the best way forward, and this system seems to be providing this for me.

I didn’t do any games on Wednesday using the system, I’m not a massive fan of getting involved in Carling Cup and Europa League games, although I’m actually very annoyed that I didn’t look into the Stoke game more tonight. In hindsight, and that’s a wonderful thing, this game was a perfect match for using the system, but never mind.

Had I got involved and it had cost me, I would have been fuming with myself.

footballgambler December 2, 2011 Assured Soccer Profits No Comments

Why do I still do these stupid things?

Over the past few weeks I have been trying fairly hard not to get involved in one of my costly sessions of speculative, roulette style, random betting. From last Sunday night I give you the games…..

Ath Bilbao v Granada – layed Under 2.5 goals at 0-1.
Marseille v Paris SG – layed Under 3.5 goals at 2-0.
Coritiba v Avai – layed Under 1.5 goals and CS at 0-0.
Millonarios v Junior – layed Under 1.5 goals and CS at 0-0.

For some reason that is still unknown to me I gambled on all 4 of these games, and not surprisingly I lost. I had done well all weekend discipline wise and with my picks, only to undo some of the good work by losing most of Saturday’s hard earned profits on nothing bets.

Of the four games listed, probably only Coritiba were worth a bet in the 2nd half. I have no real problem laying Under 1.5 goals mid way through the 2nd half when the score is 0-0 and there is a heavy odds on favourite. Apart from that, if I’m totally honest with myself the rest were just joke bets.

I actually won a few quid on Marseille, but why I layed Under 3.5 goals at 2-0 with 10 minutes left, I’ll never know. I suppose there was a chance Bilboa would come back from 0-1 down in the first game listed (I layed Under 2.5 goals in 2nd half), and as for the last game, I was simply chasing losses.

Onto other betting strategies and my pre match trading experiment resulted in a free £4 green on an Arsenal win and a free £4 green on Over 2.5 goals in the Swansea V Villa match.

I should have spread my green in both games but I really couldn’t see anything other than an Arsenal win and after the tragic news about Gary Speed I wasn’t really interested in the Swansea game or trading and just switched off from football until late in the evening.

The Assured Soccer Profits system showed a weeks profit of £18.51, so another winning week there (maybe the penny will drop there soon and I’ll just stick to that system), the overall results can be found here.

Over the course of the week I showed a profit – wow, that’s two weeks running now – so I am happy to at least be moving in the right direction. Just to clarify, this blog post is for my trading activity up to the end of Sunday 28th November.

The aim for this week is to keep going with the ASP system and hope for a weeks profit of around 7%.

footballgambler December 1, 2011 Football Betting and Opinion No Comments

Saturday’s Assured Soccer Profits Results

Saturday’s trading with the Assured Soccer Profits system resulted in a profit of £14.02, not a massive amount, but a nice steady profit which is what I’m trying to achieve, and I’m fairly sure what the system was designed to do.

Here is a list of the games I traded…..

Stoke v Blackburn – Won 40p
Hoffenheim v Freiburg – Won £1.23
West Brom v Tottenham – Won £2.42
West Ham v Derby – Won £6.65
Colo Colo v Nublense – Won £3.32

I made a bit of a pig’s ear of the Stoke V Blackburn game. To start with it went perfect, I got the goal at roughly the right time and it was still only 1-0 at HT.

Normally I would have got rid of my remaining red at around the 50 minute mark (as I hate sitting on a large red on the too many goals part of the trade when it can be bought back at odds of around 20-25), which would have left me with a green of around £4.

But I got distracted as I was looking after my 2 year old daughter and by the time I got back to my computer it had just gone 2-0 to Stoke. The price was then in to about 7, which meant I could have covered my liability, but in doing so lose any profit.

So I sat on it and hoped, it then goes 3-0 to Stoke and now I’m really panicking. I don’t want to red up on a game that could (did) win, but I also don’t want to lose about £25. The price went out to about 6.8 and there was a window to get out with a small red if things went wrong, and a small green if it stays 3-0, but I decided to ride it out.

I can’t watch the game, so I’m just watching my Betfair screen, and up pops the suspended sign. Now I’m thinking “Shit, I knew I should have got out when it was 6.8,” then I see it’s a Blackburn goal and I can breath a huge sigh of relief.

By this stage my nerves are shot, there’s about 3 minutes left plus injury time, I’m nearly there, but I can’t take any more so I bottled it and traded out at 3-1, leaving me with a massive 40p profit for all my stresses.

Can I just stress that I know losing £25 isn’t the end of the world, and believe me I’ve lost a lot more than that on a regular basis in the past. The point is trying to make the system work, a loss of £25 would have set me back weeks again like the Porto game did (match No.19 on my ASP results page), and I obviously don’t want that to happen again.

Hoffenheim v Freiburg was a bit of a balls up also. I put my ‘trade out’ bet up to be matched at a later stage of the match and accidentally put it up at the current price. As a result of what happened in the Stoke game, I took no chances and topped up my ‘out bet’ to cover, resulting in a win of £1.23, when it should have been £3.23.

I wouldn’t mind, but I did the exact same thing in the Leverkusen v Chelsea game last Wednesday.

West Brom v Tottenham was a fairly simple trade, the late goals didn’t have any bearing on the outcome of my trade. West Ham v Derby was perfect, I had traded out and gone out by half time.

I was going to call it a day at that, but after returning home I noticed late last night (no beer had been consumed) that Colo Colo v Nublense was still 0-0 after about 20 minutes, so I put a couple of lays up and was all greened out after about the hour mark.

I’d have gladly taken £14 at the start of the day, but a couple of basic stupid errors cost me about £5-£6. In a way I suppose I should be happy that amateurish errors have only cost me a bit of winnings, rather than resulting in a massive loss.

Losses will inevitably come with this system, as no system is fool proof, so adding to them with my own stupidity is something I have to address, as the next time I could be made to pay a heavier price.

footballgambler November 27, 2011 Assured Soccer Profits No Comments
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