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The return of an old foe

In fact, last weekend saw the return of two of my old foes – greed, and my penchant for what I call roulette style gambling.

Greed came in the form of my use of the £50 free bet offer from Bet365 to be used in running during the Manchester City V Manchester United game. I was a bit stumped all day what to use my free bet on, so I decided to watch the game and see if anything jumped out at me during the match, and if not, do something with it at Half Time.

With 30 minutes gone and the price of Over 2.5 goals out to 2/1, I reluctantly backed Over 2.5 goals in the hope that there would be a goal before HT – and so there was as City scored in time added on (the reason I was reluctant to back Overs was due to the fact that both sides were always going to shut up shop whenever the scoreline suited them – and so it proved).

So at this stage, I had got away with not wasting the free bet and was in a nice position to hedge my bet on Betfair and take £50 risk free money regardless of what happened. So what did I do? Well I got a bit sidetracked, missed the first 5 minutes of the 2nd half and decided then that I would wait (hope) for a second goal….. and the rest is history.

So I basically chucked away a free £50, who can afford to do that? I know I certainly can’t.

One thing that using the Over 2.5 goals at the 30 minutes mark did show me though, is that when I come to use all the free bets I have started listing down the left hand side of this page, I may well use this strategy again but in a game much more likely to produce goals.

The system would have worked on tonight’s game, had I not been greedy.

Onto my second foe, roulette style gambling. A week last Sunday I had a silly pound on the draw @ 60 in the Manchester United V Everton game when the score was 3-1, I fancied Everton to give United a run for their money, and so it proved.

I checked back about 10 minutes after I placed the bet to see it was 4-2, I started watching then and was given hope when it went 4-3, there was no point trading out at this point really as it would have been a minimal return, and after all it was only a £1 risk.

Then another Everton goal goes in and it’s now 4-4 and now I am looking to trade out. So I trade out and make around £35, happy days.

So then what happens? Well, not for the first time, I get carried away. All of a sudden it seems like a good idea to start having a silly £1 on all sorts of obscure games which I know nothing about.

Surely one will come in? If I keep going I’ll get one up and get my Man Utd V Everton winnings back? Erm, no one won’t come in.

But not content with that, I also lost the £35 I made on the cricket, and also the £25 I won backing Southampton in the AUQ market last Saturday.

To say I am pissed off with myself at the moment is an understatement.

I had two stand out bets last weekend. I really fancied Coventry to get hammered at Southampton, I was at their previous game against Doncaster and the players looked gone, they were there for the taking for Southampton. The other was a pre match trade on West Brom, they were around 2.18 (when I backed them Friday night) at home against Villa, I could only see the odds for this game going one way.

As it turned out, Southampton came in easy but the West Brom trade lost as they remarkably drifted out to around 2.26 to 2.3, unbelievable really given both teams form. I then ended up laying the draw in that match to try and recoup my pre match loss, another stupid thing to do that resulted in more losses.

My point about last weekend’s bets is that if I had just stuck to my original plan, one would have won and one lost, I won £25 on Southampton and lost £4 on the pre match West Brom trade, so I would have still been well up.

But no, I couldn’t leave it at that. So all in all after indulging in my ‘roulette’ style antics and being greedy with my Bet365 free bet, I have ended up losing out on £145 profit that I should have had. Yes the Man Utd V Everton win was a bit of a lucky bonus I suppose, but the others were not, and I have blown the lot of it so I’m not too happy with yours truly at the moment.

Weekly account update – Simply a disaster

The previous week was nearly a disaster, last week WAS an absolute disaster – so if there is plenty of swearing in this blog post, please don’t be offended.

As I pointed out in my Assured Profits System weekly round up, I had a bit of a stinker to say the least on the Saturday. So what did I do to rectify that? I chased on Sunday, and with a hangover so I wasn’t completely thinking straight – all in all, a total f—ing recipe for disaster.

I’ve looked back at the offending bets and to be honest the bets themselves weren’t the problem, it was the vast amounts staked, as I stepped way outside of my staking plan.

The games in question were Doxa Dramas v Olympiakos, and Ankaragucu v Besiktas. Both games seen a heavy odds on favourite, both games ended 0 ‘f—ing’ 0.

I started off laying Under 1.5 goals in the 2nd half of the Besiktas match (Besiktas had a SP of around 1.42). When no goals came, I topped the lay up, then still no goal arrived. So I played my last hand and layed 0-0 to cover the lot (not a mistake I’ve never made in the past!!).

And not a mistake I had to wait long to make again, about 30 minutes was plenty enough time.

Onto Olympiakos, who touched 1.11 in running just to win outright away from home. So when I noticed they were still 0-0 after about an hour, I thought “bingo, here is the chance I need to get my Besiktas money back, and straight away”.

So again I layed Under 1.5 goals, again I topped up at about 75 minutes, again I layed 0-0 on about 85 minutes, again I lost a sodding fortune.

As I stated above, I don’t think with hindsight that the two bets were that bad. It was the abandoning of my staking plan that was the problem. If I had stuck to my usual staking plan this wouldn’t have happened.

I think I can trace the root of the problem back to my lazy ASP trades on the Saturday. I got back into the mode of just assuming that any game would work for the ASP system, and as a result got my fingers burnt. And that in turn led to my chasing on Sunday.

I ended the week with my account showing about £65.00, with the ASP losses contributing to that. I currently can’t really be bothered and don’t really have the will to put up my weekly running total, I will get round to updating it though – probably in next weeks blog.

I’m afraid it’s now time to get back on the bike and wait until I inevitably fall off again.

Just for good measure, I’m going to shout this one more time at myself………….YOU STUPID BOLLOCKS

Normal Service Resumed

For my one or two avid readers wondering where Wednesday night’s betting round up is, fear not, I haven’t forgotten.

A day late and a familiar story, another loss. I think I’m going to lie low this weekend and try and rethink my stratergy, or even create a statergy – as I have to admit to never really having one.

Anyway onto what happened. I lost £9.10 on Rangers V Hearts. First I did my 70 min laying another 2 goals bet, when it was obvious it wasn’t going to win I layed the correct score for a failed bail out, resulting in a large loss.

I also lost £2.00 on correct score bets in the Blackburn V Tottenham game.

I managed to win £1.20 on Bolton V Wolves, I backed over 2.5 goals at half time and ended up laying the correct score late on to successfully cover it.

In the Blackpool V West Ham game I backed 3-2 both ways, so at half time there wasn’t many scores left to cover. I had a couple of quid on 3-3, covered 3-1 and had to put a few quid on Any Unqoted.

The upshot was that I would have covered my Rangers loss with 3-2 or 3-3, while 3-1 was a win of £1.65 and Any Unquoted would have broke me even. Frustrating really, but at half time it seemed realistic to expect more goals.

All in all another major disappointment, ended the night with a loss of £8.25.

Real Disaster

Bit of a disaster of a day again. My account received an unexpected boost with the return of a massive £2 with my lay of a previous bet on Javier Hernandez to be PFA young player of the year finally getting matched.

I then got off to a bad start losing £8.34 on Wolves V Stoke. Layed the draw at 2/1 and had to get out for a loss when it went to evens. I also had a couple of quid on 1-1 and backed over 1.5 goals with about 20 minutes left. Covered the stake on my over 1.5 goals bet when it went 1-0 to Stoke and left it to run.

There was a long suspended towards the end of the match which turned out to be for a Wolves penalty. It would have covered my loss on the Match Betting and also left me with a nice profit had they scored it.

I then won a massive £1.63 on Notts County V Manchester City, could have been a bit more had I rounded off an over 2.5 goals bet after City equalised. Decided just to cover my outlay and hope for a winner for another tenner.

Won £7.88 on Inter Milan V Palermo, had a couple of quid on 3-2 to Inter after I noticed them 2-1 down with about 20 minutes left.

I then won £3.69 on Pacos Ferreira v Guimaraes – Over/Under 3.5 Goals in the Portuguese League Cup. And no, I don’t know anything about the teams. Seen it was 1-1 with 20 minutes left so I layed under 3.5 goals for £2 at 1/10. After about 5 minutes it went 2-1 so I backed under 3.5 for a nice all round green.

It’s an interesting bet that I’ve tried quite a bit lately. With around 20 minutes left in a game, the correct score is generally about evens, while 2 more goals is usually around 1.15 to lay. A quick goal can then see you have the chance to back the same bet for a nice all round green or a free bet at worst.

I then won £5.03 on Rangers V Motherwell using the same technique. Layed under 3.5 goals when the score was 1-1 at 1.22 for £21.00 (exposure of £4.62). I then backed it at 1.84 for a nice all round green. Before laying it again late on in case of a goal at the death.

I then won £4.61 laying the half time correct score in the Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao match. I also won £3.31 on laying the draw in the same match. Got out when it was 1-0 to Bilbao to play safe, they were the underdogs, but also they were playing against 10 men at the time so I did toy with the idea of letting it run.

I lost £6.90 on the Eintracht Frankfurt V Borussia Monchengladbach game, layed the draw and then backed it for a loss. I did the 2 goals trade at the end and clawed some of the losses back, the draw trade had cost £10.

Then came the real damage. When will I ever learn? Made the fatal mistake of not trading out of Osasuna V Real Madrid as I expected Madrid to get an equaliser and what with chasing losses, I ended up losing a massive £44.16 on them.

Did over 2.5 goals to trade and I never had got a chance to trade out. I then backed over 1.5 goals and left the bet to run as I was certain Madrid would equalise. I also layed 1-0 late on hoping to recoup all my bets and watched on in horror as a clueless looking Madrid never looked like scoring.

Wiped out everything I had made in one mad 30 minutes. I had to put another £10.00 (total outlay now stands at £210.00) in the account just to lay the correct score. Went all in on them again and it went all wrong again. Why do I always do it?

Started a bit of a fightback backing 2-1 in the Juventus v Udinese match. Dutched 2-1 and 2-2 as well, traded out for a win of £11.54. Also put the – at the time – final £2 in my account on over 1.5 goals and won £2.20.

Going to leave it tomorrow and start again on Tuesday. January has been an absolutely awful month and I can’t wait for it to end. Will probably put another £40 in to give me a decent betting bank and hope for a more successful month in February.

Ended the day on £21.52 (having put another £10 in account), started it on £31.03 – a days loss of 19.51.

It had to End

After two winning nights I knew it was asking too much for a third one. I wasn’t sure whether to have a go on Celtic, Rangers or Liverpool. In the end I decided to ditch the Scottish games and go for Liverpool.

The reason? Rangers cost me dear on Saturday and they have been struggling for goals since Kenny Miller left. I couldn’t take a chance on them drawing another blank. Celtic are another side who haven’t scored many lately and after watching how tight Hearts kept things against Rangers last weekend I decided to also give this one the ‘wide berth.’

I’ve also decided to try not to get involved with too many games at the same time, so I just took the plunge on Liverpool.

The result. Yes, a loss of £8.18 on dutching the correct score. I didn’t expect a goal glut, but I don’t like backing 1-0. So to start with I did Liverpool 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1. I also done 2-2 and later in running I got on 1-1 and 2-1 to Fulham (as Liverpool have been a bit dodgy to say the least) when the odds started to drift.

I ended the night on £29.04 (outlay now stands at £200) and am nearly back to where I started the week. I am not around on Saturday, am at Cheltenham Races, so I obvioulsy won’t be Betfairing that day.

When I’m back I am considering a stint of laying the draw, surely I can’t do any worse than I have been lately!!! Will have a think about my stratergy over the next couple of days.

Two Winning Nights

Two of the old guard gave my Betfair account another much needed boost tonight with both Manchester United and Arsenal coming through for me.

About 35 minutes into the Arsenal V Ipswich game, I had £5 on over 2.5 goals at evens. Then just before the hour mark I layed under 2.5 goals for £4 at 1.25 with exposure of just £1 (overall exposure of £6). After 2 quick goals I layed off for an all round green at around the 70 minute mark and won £3.89. I stood to win more if I let the bet run, but with the current bad run I’ve been on I have to make sure I cash in.

I also won £7.14 on the Blackpool V Manchester United game. Like Chelsea on Monday night, I dutched a United win with scores of 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 and Any Unquoted, along with 2-2 in case of a high scoring draw.

At half-time with Blackpool 2-0, I backed them to win 3-2 and covered 3-3 just in case. Took a chance it wouldn’t go 3-1 or 3-0 to Blackpool, You’ve got to be prepared to take a hit if a shock result like that comes up.

Two successive winning nights, quite a good run by my awful standards of late. I ended the night on £37.22, a profit of £11.03.

A win for Me and Chelsea

I fancied a Chelsea win tonight but unfortunately I missed the kick off so I only managed to get my bets on after Drogba’s opener. In the correct score market I dutched Chelsea 3-2, 3-1, 3-0 and Any Unquoted, I also had a cover bet on 2-2 just in case Bolton made a fist of things.

For a small outlay I managed a profit of £5.70, not a fortune, but a start. My bank now stands at £26.19.

Think I might stick with the dutching route for a while now, I used it a lot around a year back and did ok with it. It’s almost like going back to basics – something I badly need to do at the moment.

You might ask, if I did ok with it in the past, then why did I change? Well the answer is partly to experiment with other techniques and also because when you are backing games like Man Utd, Chelsea (in the past), Barca and Real at home, the correct scores are usually crap odds so I found myself more and more going onto the total goals markets.

One other word of note. John Terry refused to concede the title afterwards, but I think that is just positive talk for the sake of it. There is no way they will catch Manchester United.

Saturday’s Betting

After my disasterous football bets on Tuesday I ended the night on £8.58, but thankfully I had already put a bet on the cricket earlier in the week. I won £11.32 after greening out my lay of the draw in the New Zealand V Pakistan test match, about the first call I’ve got right in ages allowing me to start Saturday with a betting bank of £19.90.

Anyway that winning feeling didn’t last long. In running in the first game I had to top my account up by another £25.00 as I lost £21.00 on over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals in Hearts V Rangers, how the hell Rangers didn’t score in this match I’ll never know, it was ridiculous. An equaliser would have won me about £15.00.

I then done a further £2.99 on correct score in Wolves V Liverpool, felt like packing up there and then and maybe I should have.

I then had a bit of success with a win of £5.64 on over 2.5 goals in Bayern Munich V Kaiserslautern, along with another win of £5.94 on correct score in the same game.

Then I had a mixed bag in the Newcastle V Spurs game, losing £1.80 laying the half time score and winning £6.65 on over 1.5 goals with Spurs late equaliser.

I also lost £4.87 on correct score in Celtic V Aberdeen, the last of my 3pm games.

Then things took a turn for the worse again in the Villa V Man City match. I fancied Bent for the first goal and a City win, had intended to have a couple of quid on 1st goalscorer/correct score bet with one of the mainstream bookmakers but forgot.

Would have lost anyway, so one I got away with. But I didn’t get away with it in my correct score bets on Betfair, losing £11.98 on correct score. I had about £7.00 worth of bets to start with and started laying 1-0 Villa late on hoping for a City equaliser.

To top my mood off I then had a bet of £15.00 on any unquoted in the Barcelona game, layed off my liability at 1.33 when Barca went 3-0 up and left the bet to run. Stood to win a tenner if Barca could score their 4th in the last 30 minutes and as my luck is going at the moment, it stayed 3-0.

Ended the day on £20.49, taking into account a further £25.00 deposit and that equals a days loss of £24.41.

Just can’t win at the moment!

Another horrible night tonight. This time I recorded a loss of £17.68 backing over 2.5 goals and laying the correct score in the Rangers V Inverness match. Don’t really know where to go from here, everything I touch at the moment is ending in disaster.

Started the night with £26.26 in account, it is now down to just £8.58.

On a brighter note I layed the draw in the New Zealand V Pakistan test match at the start of Day 4, currently have a position of £16.39 green on both a New Zealand and Pakistan win, with no liability on the draw.

Not sure whether to spread the green out or just let it run and hope for a positive result. At the moment, I’m sure I’ll manage to take the wrong road.

Another Shocker

Another shocking day at the office, when I started blogging all my bets I thought it might make me gamble more responsibly and take a more long term approach. Apparently not though, it is just getting worse.

The day started ok when I won £4.75 on over 1.5 goals in the Juventus V Bari match, got even money after about 35 minutes.

I followed that up by losing £10.35 on over 1.5 goals and laying the correct score in the Spurs V Man Utd game, a match I had no intention of getting involved in. I suppose 0-0 probably tucked up quite a few today.

From United’s point of view, they came to Spurs and did a job. Fergie probably would have taken a point at the start, he definately would have done after Rafael got sent off again. He looks a prospect, but he is a still a bit rough around the edges to say the least.

Then things got really bad, I lost £22.04 on Real Madrid, I backed them in unquoted and then in over 2.5 goals. I could have limited my overall loses with a trade on under 2.5 goals when it went 1-1, but I felt a Madrid winner might come so I let the bet run. Big mistake.

I finally finished the night off with a late-in-the-day desperate lay of the correct score in the Lecce V AC Milan match, lost £4.25 this time.

I started the day on £33.15 and have now had to put another £25.00 in my account, ended the night on £26.26. I make that a nice day’s loss of £31.89.

My overall investment in Betfair now stands at £175.00 and my account is down to £26.26. Great stuff!!!

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