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Not much Assured Soccer Profits activity over the last week with only the three games traded. Here is the results for the week 20/02/12 – 26/02/12……

21/02/12 Blackpool v West Ham – Won £1.81
25/02/12 QPR V Fulham – Lost £1.60
25/02/12 Lyon V PSG – Won £5.53

Won £5.74

The two wins were actually topsy turvy affairs, for the Blackpool/West Ham game I had to lay the Correct Score late on to get the win, and in the Lyon/PSG game I had to lay the next goal market as AUQ was long gone with Lyon going 4-2 up early in the 2nd half.

I actually made a bit of a balls up of the Lyon game, I went out at 0-1 wrongly thinking it would be a tight affair that would stay at that score, or maybe 1-1 at worst. I was fairly shocked when I arrived at my destination and checked my phone to see it was 3-1 to Lyon and that it was still in the 1st half.

Had I been doing what I should have been I would have won more as I would have started laying the score (again – having already layed 0-0) at 2-1, as this score arrived too early in the match to sit on it. But due to me never learning my lesson and taking things for granted by going out instead of sitting at my PC, I ended up missing out on that particular Correct Score lay.

The first (and only goal) arrived early in the QPR V Fulham game and I hadn’t managed to get a 0-0 lay matched, so on I went to laying 0-1. As soon as QPR had a man sent off, I abandoned my 0-1 lay for a minimal loss as I could see the game staying at that score, and so it proved. I didn’t see Fulham chasing a second, and QPR struggle to score.

Pre match I had both teams down as a one goal team, maybe a 1-0 either way or a 1-1, so as soon as the first goal went in it was pretty much curtains for the trade, even without the sending off. A moderate loss in the end.

Back to winning ways at last with the Assured Soccer Profits system, this week seen a profit of £14.05, ending a 3 week losing run.

It should have been better and would have been had I not taken my eye off the ball in the Wolves V West Brom game, as a result of this I only ended up with a scratch trade from what should have been a comfortable win. That match aside, I only traded 4 others and this is how they ended up for the week 06/02/12 – 12/02/12…..

08/02/12 Middlesbrough v Sunderland – Won 95p
11/02/12 Betis v Ath Bilbao – Won £2.37
12/02/12 Aston Villa v Man City – Won £4.18
12.02/12 FC Koln v Hamburg – Won £6.55

I traded Middlesbrough V Sunderland to the book, and as a result I had rather annoyingly reduced my liabilities before Sunderland took the lead in a game I was certain there was going to be goals in. The result of this was to have an impact on my weekends trades.

In the Betis game I covered my position late on due to a sending off and the away team parking the bus, so that reduced my winnings after the late deciding goal.

The other two games also were decided by late goals, very late in the Koln/Hamburg match. After what happened with Sunderland, I decided to take the position in some games that I am just going to take my chances on it not ending 0-0 and leave most of my liability (up to a maximum of £20), I thought this could be slightly risking with Villa V Man City, but I did have a feeling City would edge it late on with a 0-1 or 0-2 scoreline – and so it proved.

I also couldn’t see Koln V Hamburg finishing 0-0, so I was very relieved to see a last gasp winner go in for the visitors, a 0-0 there would have wiped out the whole week’s winnings again.

I have decided to be a bit more gung-ho with this system now, this is down to the fact that I have put a maximum loss amount on all trades, and also down to the fact that in being too cautious in general I am costing myself winnings.

This change should result in more losses I suppose, but also bigger wins when 0-0 lays come in. Match selection will obviously be key, but I am prepared too run with this for a while and see where it gets me. Again like last week, it will be done on a limited amount of matches.

Bit of another damp squib of a week using the Assured Soccer Profits system with a loss of £4.25 recorded. I’m not too disappointed as I was only really feeling my way back into things and I took it far more cautiously than I had previously been doing so.

Results for week 29th Jan -5th Feb….

31/01/12 Everton V Manchester City – Won 63p
01/02/12 Sunderland V Norwich – Lost £9.75
01/02/12 Fulham V West Brom – Won 78p
01/02/12 Mirassol v Paulista – Lost £3.50
05/02/12 Chelsea v Man Utd – Won £3.32
05/02/12 Zaragoza v Rayo Vallecano – Won £4.27

The obvious spanner in the works is the Sunderland V Norwich game. I traded this pretty much by the book and took action when it went 2-0 fairly early on. When it went 3-0 early(ish) in the second half I managed to get myself in a position that seen me half my starting liabilities whether it finished 3-0 (as it did) or Sunderland went on to score a 4th.

On the flip side I was quids in if Norwich had managed a goal, on another night I may well have ended up with a nice win here.

The other loss in the Mirassol v Paulista game was down to me following the market in the belief that Mirassol would score again. I could have traded out at half time for scratch, but I followed the market and stayed in waiting for the equaliser – which ultimately didn’t come.

Thursday and Friday didn’t present any trading opportunities for the system, while I also didn’t use it on Saturday as I just did a bit of good old fashioned gambling in a back to basics fashion.

Onto Sunday and I got out of the Chelsea trade at 1-0, thankfully. And I also did exactly the same in the Zaragoza match.

As a result of a rethink of late I don’t intend to be trading using this system all the time any more, I’m going to be far more selective with my ASP match selections and just use it more sparingly going forward. The main reason for this is because I intend to go back to basics a bit more with my trading and not over complicate things.

After having a fairly bad day last Saturday, I took a couple of days off from trading with the Assured Soccer Profits system to have a bit of a rethink of my strategy and approach.

I don’t think it hurts to sometimes take a step back to try and re-evaluate things, or just so I don’t get bogged down, bored or complacent – all of which can lead to bad decision making that could cost me winnings.

Anyway, not sure if it was down to the 2 day break, better match selection, a change in strategy or just simply a change in luck, but I managed to record a welcome profit of £23.79, from the 9 games traded.

Here is the list of those 9 games….

10/01/12 Cambridge Utd v Grimsby – Won £3.15
11/01/12 Tottenham v Everton – Won £1.57
11/01/12 Birmingham v Ipswich – Won £2.14
14/01/12 Blackburn v Fulham – Won £2.37
14/01/12 West Brom v Norwich – Won £8.55
14/01/12 Sevilla v Espanyol – Lost £4.77
15/01/12 Newcastle v QPR – Won £7.98
15/01/12 Gijon v Malaga – Won £1.85
15/01/12 AC Milan v Inter – Won 95p

Taking a brief look at some of those games, I traded out of Tottenham V Everton for a small profit at 0-0 just before the opening goal. It was partly down to the fact that an easy green was available at the time and I was rebuilding my betting bank, and partly down to the fact that I expected Spurs might slip up here against a struggling Everton side probably happy to leave with a 0-0.

Birmingham V Ipswich was fairly routine with an early goal, but I was worried about Ipswich’s recent record of letting in goals, so I closed out my position fairly early in the first half.

I reduced my 0-0 liability in the Blackburn V Fulham game as soon as the sending off happened as I felt it could result in Blackburn going defensive. I left a small red on 0-0 and a small green in the middle. Luckily for me I completely closed out my position at HT (it was 1-0 by then), otherwise it would have been a hairy last 10 minutes or so with Blackburn scoring a 3rd in the 79th minute.

The West Brom and Newcastle matches were perfect with a goal coming in the nick of time in both games. In the Gijon and AC Milan matches, I covered my 0-0 liability in the first half as I smelt 0-0′s.

The Seville match was the only lose of the week. When having my rethink at the start of the week I decided to cover 0-0 by around the 35 minute mark in games which I thought had potential to be low scoring.

The flip side of that was that I also decided with games in which I was fairly certain there would be goals, I wouldn’t be so cautious with covering 0-0, instead just significantly reducing my liability, while making sure I didn’t get caught at the other end of the trade with a 2nd half goal rush.

I believed that Seville fitted this bill. I thought that there was bound to be a goal in this match, so as a result I left a bit more green in the middle and left myself with a £4.77 red on the 0-0 (as opposed to no red, like in AC Milan game, etc).

In the true fashion that is ‘Sod’s Law,’ Seville was the only game that finished 0-0, and all the games I thought might have a chance of ending 0-0 and thus covered that particular score – had bloody goals in them.

So in a way I was a bit annoyed that what ended as a good week, could have been a much better week had I been a bit less cautious.

Having said all that, deep down I believe that I did the right thing here. This is the method that I think is going to be most productive in the long run. As I have wrote on this blog many times before, this isn’t a get rich quick scheme, it involves patience and discipline – something, which sadly I generally lack in a bad way.

Onto my Assured Soccer Profits results page and I’m pleased to say that profits are back above the 3 figure mark – hopefully there will be no going back to double figures this time.

This now leaves me with an overall profit of £102.05 from 117 games traded, still well below where I’d like to be, but I feel I’m now heading in the right direction (why did I just write that – I can see next weeks review already).

I’d also like to mention that I intend to try and update my site more regular. If all goes to plan I will try and update in midweek when things will be fresher in my mind of games I have just traded, rather that waiting until the weekend, when I have generally forgot why I did certain things during matches.

Anyway, onwards and upwards is hopefully the way, so good luck to all and let’s hope for a successful weeks trading.

Quite a lot of games traded this week, 16 in total, resulting in a weeks profit of £41.76 – an average of £2.61 a match. Here is a list of the games traded with the ASP system between 26/12/11 and 1/1/12…..

26/12/11 – AFC Wimbledon v Oxford Utd – Won 47p
26/12/11 – Bolton v Newcastle – Won £1.14
27/12/11 – Sheff Utd v Notts Co – Won £3.99
27/12/11 – Swansea v QPR – Won £6.03
28/12/11 – Leixoes v Uniao Madeira – Lost 60p
28/12/11 – Maccabi Haifa v Ashdod – Won £5.46
28/12/11 – Ajman Club v Al Shabab – Won £1.09
29/12/11 – Moreirense v Naval – Won £4.89
31/12/11 – Leicester v Portsmouth – Won £4.75
31/12/11 – Derby v West Ham – Won £1.19
31/12/11 – Bolton v Wolves – Won £2.85
31/12/11 – Middlesbrough v Peterborough – Won £3.04
31/12/11 – Norwich v Fulham – Won £4.42
31/12/11 – L Orient v Charlton – Won £1.00
01/01/12 – West Brom v Everton – Won £1.09
01/01/12 – Sunderland V Manchester City – Won 95p

Due to the disaster that took place on Boxing Day (I lost a lot on Manchester City’s 0-0 draw with West Brom, first laying Under 1.5 goals and then 0-0 in the Correct Score market. On top of that I chased late on in the Liverpool V Blackburn game, laying CS and Under 3.5 goals (was 1-1 at the time). Then for some ridiculous reason I also chased in Stoke V Aston Villa, backing goals in the most drab 0-0 for years.) I ended up trading a lot of games using the ASP system as I deemed it the safest way to hopefully claw back some of my stupid losses.

This resulted in some obscure games been traded when their wasn’t many games available to trade, and also a lot of trades last Saturday. Overall though, it was a successful week for the system, probably more by default, but a week’s profit of £41.76 is more than acceptable to me.

This backed up my theory that clawing back my losses was probably best done using this system, and if I can make £40 plus a week using this method, then it could be advisable for me to abandon other gambling methods and maybe just stick too using the ASP system for the foreseeable future.

Also, as I eluded too in my last blog post, I hope I have reached a watershed moment with the system and I can be more profitable going forward.

I’m not going to get too carried away just yet though, as come next week I could (and probably will) be sitting here writing about some ASP disaster.

The overall ASP results now shows a running profit of £94.44 from 93 games traded, so at least I’m back over a £1.00 a game profit.

I traded two games today, West Brom V Everton and Sunderland V Manchester City, using the Assured Soccer Profits system. I ended up winning the princely sum of £2.04, but a penny may have dropped and I’d like to think that today could be a watershed moment for me in how to use this system more efficiently going forward.

I have had a good week with the system overall, it has gone a long way to recouping some serious losses from West Brom V Manchester City and the subsequent chasing I did afterwards, activity which I will update on tomorrow.

Back onto today and whilst watching West Brom V Everton I got the distinct feeling that the game could have 0-0 written all over it. As a result of this I bailed out of my 0-0 lays when the price was 6.2, rather than at half time when 0-0 is usually around 4.3, my usual exit point.

After exiting 0-0, I found myself with a red of £2.40 on 0-0, and a green of £1.09 on all other scores. I think AUQ was in green for a few pence.

Basically, £2.40 was a loss I could live with and it wouldn’t have ruined all my good work of the previous 4 or 5 days. A week ago I would have got out at half time. If I had waited until half time today, I would have been looking at a red of around approximately £13-£15 such was the shortness of the 0-0 price. As I stated above, the usual half time price for 0-0 is generally around 4.3.

0-0 actually hit this price in the 35th minute today, such was the markets lack of expectation of goals.

In affect, when I traded out I left myself with a £2.40 bet at odds of just above 2/5 on the match not finishing 0-0, which was probably somewhere slightly under what the market price was at the time. But the crucial point is that if a goal had been scored before the 35th minute, I would have won a few more quid.

Onto Sunderland V Man City, I layed AUQ pre match for 8.8, I had about £35 liability on this score. I also layed 0-0 at 13 in first couple of minutes of match.

After what happened with Schalke the other week and with Man City having scored bags of goals this season, I reduced my AUQ liability and again layed 0-0 after about 15-18 minutes.

I was going out and when I left the house I was in the position of 0-0 £30 red, AUQ £11 red, any other score £6 green, at about the 20 minute mark.

My first obvious mistake is getting involved in a bet when I was going out (I already knew that) and my second mistake was expecting a Manchester City goal. I only done the bet in the knowledge I was going out because it was City and they were bound to score, right? Wrong!

Because I expected City would score I didn’t bother worrying about an exit strategy, like the one I used in the West Brom V Everton match. As a result of this when I got to where I was going at half time, I could only back 0-0 (on my phone) to leave me with £16 red on the goalless outcome.

I had to take it, as I remember only too well what happened in the West Brom V Man City match a few days back. So I left myself with £16 red on 0-0, £11 red on AUQ and 95p green on all other scores.

As I was thinking about writing this blog post it started to occur to me that the West Brom V Everton game was the way the system is supposed to be used. It has got me thinking back to watching the videos about this system and how the games should be traded.

I have in the past been guilty of excepting a loss on 0-0 from time to time, with the perception that the wins will outweigh the losses in the long run.

If I had waited until half time in the West Brom game to exit, I would still have left a £1 green on all other scores. So in effect I would have stood to win the same (as I actually did win), but lose 5 or 6 times more (had it finished 0-0).

All I lost was the opportunity of winning around £5 with a goal in the 10 minutes before half time. I suppose it comes down to weighing up the balance between what I might win with a goal between 35 minutes and half time, against what a 0-0 would cost me if I waited until half time to reduce liabilities.

Obviously trading out on 35 minutes reduces the window of opportunity for the first goal to be scored, but the wins are of such a minimum amount with this system that one big loss can write off a week’s winnings, so it’s now starting to dawn on me that not losing or seriously limiting losses, should be the first rule of using this system.

As it happened the late Sunderland winner bailed me out, but if it had of finished 0-0 then I would have wiped out most of Saturdays profits, which would have been another set back for my trial of the system.

In the past I have left bets to run in the hope a goal would come, I soon learned that was wrong. I then decided that I needed to get out at half time, I know believe that to be wrong.

So in conclusion, taking both these trades into consideration I am now going to implement the system in the way I used it in the West Brom V Everton game.

I’m now going to (discipline pending) try to bail out when I’m at the stage where the loss will only wipe out the profits for a maximum of one or two matches, rather than a day or two’s profits – like I have sometimes been doing.

I have stressed time and time again that I am learning with this system. To any regular readers it probably seems that I am learning very slowly and I couldn’t disagree with that. In fact it could be argued that if I had been hit round the face with a wet kipper with the information on it, it still wouldn’t have sunk in. In hindsight it seems so bloody obvious that you don’t let one potential 0-0 match wipe out a day or two’s profits, so why has it taken me so long to realise? Doh.

For anyone interested in the system, more information can be found here.